What early fundraising in California says about the race for Congress: Some incumbents are behind
California’s congressional races are pivotal to Democratic efforts to flip the House, and there are already more than 60 candidates in more than a dozen battleground districts for the 2018 election.
It is 16 months before the 2018 general election and candidates have until March to file to run for Congress. But it isn’t unusual for them to start campaigning so early in order to try to advance to a general election runoff by securing one of the top two spots in the June primary. It gives them plenty of time to raise the more than a million dollars often required to win.
Many of the challengers recently filed their first financial reports, and political insiders and donors are looking closely for indicators of who has fundraising ability. A strong early fundraising figure can deter potential rivals or draw support from the national political parties. Weak fundraising can encourage new opponents to enter the race.
We looked at dozens of early campaign finance reports so you don’t have to, and here’s what we learned:
Some incumbents are already sitting on lots of cash as opponents line up to challenge them
Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine)
Walters has drawn half a dozen Democratic challengers already, and her robust fundraising figures show the two-term Republican is gearing up for what could be an expensive fight in a district that chose presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by 5% in November. Walters was reelected with 58.6% of the vote.
In the second quarter of 2017, Walters raised $701,696, more than any other battleground incumbent in California. That leaves her with a war chest of more than $1.1 million.
Two opponents, Katie Porter and Dave Min, appear particularly competitive in the 45th Congressional District, having raised $311,570 and $304,208, respectively, in their first three months. Both will have to quickly catch up to compete with Walters. Ron Varasteh, a candidate who lost to Walters last year, has more than $253,785 despite raising virtually no money this year. His money comes mostly from a $250,000 loan he gave himself.
Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)
Royce, who won in a district where Clinton trounced Donald Trump by nearly 9%, is facing five opponents, most of them Democrats.
Only two of his competitors have reported raising any money so far: pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran, who raised $273,148, and education consultant Phil Janowicz, who received $180,284. Those are significant sums considering both announced their runs within the last few months.
But they have a long way to go to catch up to Royce’s $3.1 million, bolstered in part by years of running in a safe Republican seat in which he didn’t have to spend much. Despite the enthusiasm for Clinton, Royce won by nearly 15 points in November.
Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
Of Denham’s eight announced opponents, only investor Josh Harder reported raising more than $100,000. Since jumping into the race in early May, Harder brought in $403,589 and had $374,972 on hand at the end of the quarter.
Denham didn’t raise much more over the same period ending June 30: He reported taking in $498,237 during the second quarter.
But Denham still has more than $1 million in the bank in case Harder mounts a competitive challenge and things get ugly. As a frequent Democratic target, he may need it: Clinton won by about 3% in this district in November, the same margin by which Denham beat Democratic challenger Michael Eggman.
Eggman, who isn’t running again, has launched a political action committee with the intent of ousting Republican incumbents, including Denham. Democrats also have a slight voter registration advantage in the 10th District.
Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford)
Valadao’s Central Valley district looks especially attractive to Democrats on paper: Clinton won by more than 15%, and Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 46% to 29%.
But Valadao has stayed hyperfocused on local issues, especially water policies important to his agricultural constituency, and sidestepped many of the controversies in the Trump-Clinton fight last year. He ended up winning by more than 13% over attorney Emilio Huerta, son of labor rights icon Dolores Huerta, who has filed to run against Valadao again.
But Huerta has barely raised any money in the weeks since he’s announced, reporting $35,828 in fundraising and just $110,584 cash on hand at the end of the quarter. Valadao, on the other hand, raised $339,140 and ends the quarter with a healthy $565,899 in the bank.
These incumbents are showing lackluster fundraising, and their opponents could catch up fast
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa)
About 10 people have filed to run against 15-term Rohrabacher in his coastal Orange County district, and at least two of them have reported big hauls.
Real estate businessman Harley Rouda, a Democrat, has built up the largest war chest with$177,974, nearly half the$406,616 Rohrabacher had in the bank by the end of the quarter. Biotech firm chief executive Hans Keirstead was close behind with$135,396.